Why Nikita Kucherov's upcoming extension is complicated

Nikita Kucherov couldn’t have picked a more perfect time to deliver a dominant season and collect his second Hart Trophy. 

The Tampa Bay Lightning forward tallied a ridiculous 130 points, thanks to a stretch in 2025-26 where he notched 107 points in a 53-game span. That included nine different games in which he had at least four points and only 16 contests all year in which he was held off the scoresheet.

Kucherov is now eligible to ink a contract extension with only one year remaining on his current deal at $9.5 million for the upcoming campaign. He’s almost certainly headed for a massive raise, but the question is, how big will it be? The NHL’s financial landscape is vastly different from what it was just a couple of months ago. Leo Carlsson’s offer sheet and Macklin Celebrini’s subsequent groundbreaking extension have changed the market forever, something from which Kucherov is going to benefit greatly. 

That said, it’s just not as simple as the Lightning backing up the Brink’s truck for Kucherov. There are many factors Tampa has to consider when securing Kucherov to a long-term extension, which could complicate things for both parties. 

The market

Both Celebrini and Carlsson will soon be making almost double what Kucherov will earn this year, and Connor Bedard is now locked up at $15 million per season. You could make an argument that Kucherov is a better player than all of them, but all three are more than 10 years younger than the Lightning superstar. Celebrini, Carlsson and Bedard are still ascending, while Kucherov should inevitably start to regress at some point over the next few years. 

That’s going to make landing on an AAV that both Tampa and Kucherov agree on very tricky. I don’t think it’s reasonable for Kucherov to demand $18 million like Carlsson and Celebrini got, given his age, but it also doesn’t seem likely he’ll be content just to accept a raise of $2 million or so. Leon Draisaitl will be 31 in October and will be making $14 million per season for the next seven years, so that seems like a more realistic comparable for Kucherov. Especially when you consider Kucherov has totalled 86 more points than Draisaitl over the past three seasons. Kucherov would have a strong case to demand more than $14 million, given his production and the current market. 

One thing the Lightning do have going for them is that they play in a no-income-tax state. They’ve used that to their advantage before, securing good value deals for players like Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel. That may help them shave Kucherov’s new number down a little, but that still likely won’t be enough to get them a significant discount in this new financial world. 

The term

Max-term contracts coming out of an entry-level deal appear to be a thing of the past, with Carlsson, Celebrini and Bedard all opting for just five years. That’s in part because they are all still young enough to sign multiple contracts beyond their most recent pacts, and there’s a chance the cap could continue to explode. So, locking in for too much term right now could be a financial mistake for a player in their early twenties. 

Kucherov, though, is in a different situation entirely. He’ll be 34 when his next deal kicks in, and there’s a good chance he’ll be looking for as much term as possible. Coming off a Hart Trophy season, this could be Kucherov’s best chance to maximize his value on one final lucrative long-term contract because there’s no telling how his game will drop off as he heads into his mid-to-late thirties. That type of deal could come with some risk for the Lightning, as giving Kucherov something in the $13 million or $14 million range per season could end up being troublesome on the back end of the contract. Even in a rising cap world, that would be a big number for Tampa to absorb in year six or seven of a Kucherov deal when he’s 39 or 40 years old if his play starts to fall off substantially. 

Keep in mind, Kucherov could theoretically still sign an eight-year deal up until Sept. 16. That’s an avenue that would probably lower his AAV but take him to age 41 in the final year of the deal. It seems unlikely that Tampa would want to go down that road, but adding term to the contract to bring Kucherov’s number down could be tempting if it allows the Lightning more roster flexibility to keep their competitive window open. 

The roster

Tampa is fortunate that key players like Point, Hagel, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman and JJ Moser are all locked in for the foreseeable future, but that doesn’t mean a Kucherov extension can’t complicate matters in a year or two. Andrei Vasilevskiy only has two years remaining on his current deal, and guys like Conor Geekie and Gage Goncalves could command a decent extension next summer if they take another step in 2026-27. 

The Lightning also haven’t made it past the first round in four straight post-seasons, and they need to upgrade the roster in a few areas. Tampa could use a boost at the centre position so Cirelli could be bumped down to the third unit. Right now, Yanni Gourde and Dominic James are behind Point and Cirelli, which isn’t ideal depth if you hope to beat the Florida Panthers or Carolina Hurricanes in a playoff series. They could also stand to get younger on defence, as Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and the newly acquired John Carlson can’t be counted on for significant contributions forever. It’s going to be tough for the Lightning to bring in talent if they continue to be capped out. 

As the cap goes up over the next few seasons, it should make things easier for a team like Tampa to manoeuvre, but if Kucherov takes up a huge slice of the pie on a new deal, it could still make things challenging.  

The Lightning’s contract history

Tampa doesn’t have many absolute steals when it comes to contracts, but they’ve done a good job of locking up players under market value and rarely overpay. The fact that there’s no income tax for Lightning players certainly helps the cause, and it likely contributed to saving some money on the contracts for guys like Point and Hagel, two deals that are aging very well. Given all the talent Tampa boasts, it’s impressive it still doesn’t have a $10-million player on its roster. 

That’s going to change when Kucherov inks his extension, but the question is, how far are the Lightning willing to go? Some teams used to have an internal cap, though no one will be able to keep that going for very long after this market explosion. Currently, Kucherov, Point and Vasilevskiy are all making $9.5 million, so would Tampa be comfortable giving Kucherov $5 million more than those two if it comes to that?

The Lightning also recently parted ways with a franchise icon, Steven Stamkos, when the two couldn’t come to terms on a new contract. Obviously, Kucherov is still playing at a much higher level than Stamkos was, but it shows there is a line Tampa will not cross during negotiations. Even if it is for a beloved player.